Inflection Signals
N°10 - October 2025
As October begins, this edition documents significant shifts across financial and operational systems
Asia’s private equity confronts its harshest capital winter, with 2024 fundraising at just 10% of 2021 levels and fire sales like Northstar Group’s $6M disposal of a key fund, a stark contrast for a firm that raised $2.7 billion over two decades.”
Geoffroy de Becdelièvre documents that B2B SaaS Series A requirements have doubled since 2021 while deal volume dropped 50% and valuations stayed flat, forcing founders to deliver twice the traction for the same price with half the chances of success.
Structural adaptations emerge across sectors. Elise Brocard reports 55 evergreen funds launched in Europe during 2024 following Eltif 2.0 implementation, while Paul Fehlinger argues European VCs must build policy capacity as regulation now shapes returns as directly as customer demand.
Cybersecurity systems face mounting pressure as weekly attacks per organisation more than doubled from 818 incidents in Q2 2021 to 1,984 in Q2 2025, while budgets grow just 4% annually. Only 14% of organisations report adequate cyber talent, forcing reliance on AI defences even as criminals weaponise the same technology.
Gen Z career priorities shift as Megan Cerullo documents 77% now prioritise careers resistant to automation, driving growing interest in skilled trades as unemployment for recent college graduates rises to 4.6% from 3.2% in 2019, while non-college workers in the same age group saw only 0.5% increase.
Environmental boundaries continue breaching. Stockholm Resilience Centre reports seven of nine planetary boundaries now crossed in 2025, with ocean acidification crossing its threshold for the first time as surface pH dropped 0.1 units since the industrial era. Meanwhile, Morocco’s ratification triggered the UN High Seas Treaty, establishing the first legally binding framework to protect international waters.
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Insights
The Straits Times 🇸🇬 reports Asia’s private equity faces its harshest capital winter in recent memory, with Indonesian firm Northstar Group selling key funds for just $6 million after raising $2.7 billion over two decades. At Singapore’s SuperReturn Asia conference, only one attendee raised their hand when asked about fresh commitments in the past or next 24 months, while 2024 fundraising represented just 10% of 2021 levels, with South-east Asia seeing a 35% drop in deal value during H1 2025. | The Straits Times - PRIVATE EQUITY
Elise Brocard 🇫🇷 reports evergreen funds are proliferating across Europe following Eltif 2.0 implementation, with 55 vehicles launched in 2024 led by Luxembourg’s 37 approvals and Paris’s 10 AMF authorisations. Private debt dominates at €6.7B volume as France’s “Loi Industrie Verte” mandates private asset allocation in life insurance, while managers like Morgan Stanley IM and Blackstone navigate NAV calculation complexity, liquidity management, and High Water Mark carried interest mechanisms for open-ended structures. | Capital Finance - ASSET MANAGEMENT - Evergreen
Paul Fehlinger 🇫🇷 argues European VCs must build policy capacity as regulation now shapes returns as directly as customer demand, yet Europe lacks the institutional muscle US firms developed since the 1970s. Writing in his VC and Policy platform, he contends that while General Catalyst launched a full policy institute and led the EU AI Champions Initiative with 60+ companies, most European funds still treat policy as external risk rather than ecosystem co-creation opportunity, missing first-mover advantages in shaping frameworks for AI, fintech, and health tech innovation. | VC and Policy
Geoffroy de Becdelièvre 🇫🇷 warns that B2B SaaS Series A requirements have doubled since 2021 while deal volume dropped 50% and valuations stayed flat, forcing founders to deliver twice the traction for the same price with half the chances of success. The entrepreneur and investor attributes this to inflated seed valuations pushing Series A funds back to seed stage, VCs demanding stronger product-market fit proof beyond revenue metrics, and successful founders like lemlist bypassing Series A entirely by achieving profitability and bootstrapping growth. | LinkedIn - VC
Paul Molga 🇫🇷 reports that Japanese staffing giant Persol (€9B revenue) takes majority stake in Marseille-based Gojob through a €120M investment, enabling historical investors including Breega and Kois to exit while founder Pascal Lorne maintains operational control and strengthens his equity position. The AI recruitment platform’s Aglae technology, trained on 7 million CVs to prioritise soft skills over experience, generated €200M revenue with 10,000 monthly missions in 2024 and targets €1B by 2030 through Asian deployment and US acquisitions in the $125B American staffing market. | Les Echos - M&A
Megan Cerullo 🇺🇸 reports that 77% of Gen Z now prioritise careers resistant to automation, driving growing interest in skilled trades as AI threatens entry-level white-collar positions, with unemployment for recent college grads rising from 3.2% in 2019 to 4.6% while non-college workers in the same age group saw only 0.5% increase. This trend reflects concerns over $500,000 total cost of bachelor’s degrees including foregone income, while young tradespeople like 23-year-old electrician Jacob Palmer generating $150,000 revenue without student debt and consider field work to be immune to AI, unlike software development and accounting jobs. | CBS News - AI
We Don’t Have Time 🇸🇪 reports that Morocco became the 60th country to ratify the UN High Seas Treaty on September 19, 2025, triggering the world’s first legally binding framework to protect biodiversity in international waters covering two-thirds of ocean surface. Sweden led negotiations during its 2023 EU Presidency while inaugurating the Baltic Sea’s first national marine reserve, though major players including the US, China, Russia, Japan, and Australia remain absent despite the treaty enabling the 30x30 conservation target requiring 30% ocean protection by 2030. | We Don’t Have Time - OCEAN
Stockholm Resilience Centre 🇸🇪 reports that seven of nine planetary boundaries have been breached in 2025, with ocean acidification crossing the threshold for the first time as surface pH dropped 0.1 units since the industrial era, a 30-40% acidity increase threatening cold-water corals, tropical reefs, and Arctic marine life. The Planetary Health Check 2025 shows all seven breached boundaries worsening, though Johan Rockström notes ozone depletion recovery proves reversal is possible, while cities like Amsterdam and countries including New Zealand increasingly adopt the framework to guide sustainability strategies. | SRC - PLANETARY BOUNDARIES
Stockholm Resilience Centre 🇸🇪 argues that finance actively erodes nature by ignoring ecological realities in risk models that assume a stable planet, leaving the system exposed to cascading shocks from ecosystem collapse including urban fires, disease outbreaks, and supply chain disruptions. The Stockholm Resilience Centre review in iScience calls for systems thinking to create virtuous loops where nature-positive investments strengthen ecosystems, lower financial risks, and encourage further innovation, requiring transparent science-based disclosures beyond vague ESG claims and financial materiality assessments. | SRC - FINANCE
Bénédicte Weiss 🇫🇷 reports that the Grand Est region is launching France’s first large-scale regional bike service in train stations with 52 stations equipped by end of 2025, inspired by Belgium’s efficient model to solve the last-mile problem through intermodality with 500 electric bikes available via app at €3-6/day. The service operated by Fifteen represents a €2.5M investment within the 2022-2028 regional bike plan targeting 12% modal share by 2030, with potential deployment across 150 of the region’s 360 stations. | Les Echos - MOBILITY
Graph of the week
This edition’s graph from the World Economic Forum reveals that cyberattacks have more than doubled in four years, rising from 818 weekly incidents per organisation in Q2 2021 to 1,984 in Q2 2025. This surge comes as cybersecurity budgets plateau (growing only 4% in 2025 vs. 17% in 2022) while threats become more sophisticated with AI-powered deepfakes, social engineering, and ransomware. The widening gap between attack frequency and defensive spending highlights a critical vulnerability: only 14% of organizations report having adequate cyber talent, forcing many to turn to AI-based defenses even as criminals weaponize the same technology for phishing and zero-day exploits.
