The 99.999% unknown: this week's revelations
N°3 - May 2025
This edition explores significant developments reshaping our world: while we've explored less than 0.001% of Earth's deep seafloor, China records its first emissions reduction driven by clean energy growth. We examine how private equity firms are rewriting debt hierarchy rules, creating new "class systems" that cost creditors billions, and explore European efforts to attract US startup talent amid current political uncertainties.
Meanwhile, established players face mounting pressure as economic uncertainties reshape traditional business models across sectors.
The featured graph from Our World in Data reveals AI's exponential leap in handling complex tasks, suggesting we may soon see systems capable of work requiring days of human effort.
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Let’s dive in! 💫
Insights
Alex Lynn, Carmela Mendoza & Madeleine Farman 🇬🇧 examine how recent market volatility tests investor resolve in semi-liquid private markets funds. With this sector growing to over 40 strategies and $30 billion AUM since 2020, major firms report minimal redemption increases so far, suggesting individual investors may be embracing the long-term view these vehicles require. | PEI - FINANCE
PitchBook Research Team 🇺🇸 forecasts that private capital AUM will reach $24 trillion by 2029, driven by private wealth channels, evergreen structures, and insurance capital. While private debt and PE remain growth engines, the report highlights the shift toward perpetual capital vehicles expanding accessibility for individual investors despite challenging market conditions. | PitchBook - FINANCE
Lawrence Aragon & David Bogoslaw 🇺🇸 examine the rising trend of evergreen funds in venture capital, highlighting recent examples offering investors increased liquidity options and lower minimum investments. Despite these LP-friendly features, some industry veterans warn they might create more transactional dynamics between managers and investors. | Venture Capital Journal - FINANCE - Private Equity
Reshmi Basu 🇺🇸 exposes how private equity firms are abandoning traditional debt rules, creating a "class system" where select creditors get preferential treatment while others face massive losses. Cases like Tropicana show PE owners dividing loans into multiple tiers, with inside groups getting 95-97 cents on the dollar while others get just 28-31 cents. This trend threatens to increase borrowing costs across the struggling economy. | Bloomberg - FINANCE - Private Equity
Amy Cortese & Jessica Pothering 🇺🇸 explore climate adaptation and resilience (A&R) investments as an "unavoidable opportunity" requiring $1.3 trillion annually. A new BCG-Temasek report highlights climate-smart agriculture, cooling systems, and climate insurance as areas with strong market demand, with dedicated funds already emerging from firms like The Lightsmith Group. | ImpactAlpha - CLIMATE - Investment
Martin Greenacre 🇫🇷 reports that the European Innovation Council urges the Commission to launch a campaign attracting US start-up talent during a "rare window of opportunity" created by current American policies. Recommendations include a relocation helpdesk, easier visa extensions, and increased procurement from European start-ups to boost European tech ambitions. | Science|Business - TECH - Policy
Robert Hutchins 🇬🇧 covers Sir David Attenborough's powerful new film "Ocean," described by the 99-year-old broadcaster as "one of the most important films of his career." The documentary serves as Attenborough's final plea for ocean protection, highlighting destructive practices while offering evidence that marine ecosystems can recover with proper intervention. | Oceanographic Magazine - ENVIRONMENT
Nell Greenfieldboyce 🇺🇸 reveals that humans have directly visualized less than 0.001% of the deep seafloor despite 43,000 documented expeditions since 1958. Research shows exploration has been concentrated near just five countries, leaving vast regions unexplored, with scientists emphasizing that every expedition yields surprising discoveries in Earth's largest habitat. | NPR - ENVIRONMENT - Ocean
Alejandro Frid 🇲🇽 demonstrates how Indigenous knowledge systems offer crucial insights for sustainable fisheries management. His research with First Nations reveals traditional approaches viewing humans as obligated to practice respect with marine life, combining ancient wisdom with modern science to preserve ecosystems threatened by climate change. | Nautilus - ENVIRONMENT - Fisheries
Florence Santrot 🇫🇷 reveals that China reduced its CO₂ emissions for the first time (-1.6% in Q1 2025) thanks to clean energy rather than economic shock. Combined solar and wind production exceeded hydroelectric power with 951 TWh, enabling reduced coal production despite rising energy demand. This historic trend could signal a structural decline in Chinese emissions. | WeDemain - ENVIRONMENT - Energy Transition
Graph of the week
This week's chart from Our World in Data reveals AI's accelerating capability to handle increasingly complex, time-intensive tasks. Before 2023, the most advanced AI systems could only manage 10-second tasks like file selection. Today's models reliably complete 20+ minute professional tasks including debugging code and software configuration with 80% accuracy. This exponential leap from seconds to minutes suggests AI systems may soon tackle tasks requiring days of human work, fundamentally reshaping workplace dynamics across knowledge-intensive sectors.
