The heart of today's permacrisis
N°20 - April 2026
Three interconnected tensions, geopolitical fragmentation, planetary boundaries breached, and technological acceleration, are reshaping how systems break and who bears the cost. This edition examines how March 2026 made those dynamics uncomfortably visible.
Iran conflict reveals critical dependencies. Molly Taft reports US farmers face fertilizer shortages as conflict threatens 30% global ammonia production ahead of spring planting, whilst Adi Imsirovic warns Strait of Hormuz closure removing 11 million barrels daily could exceed COVID economic impact. Yet Javier Blas documents agricultural resilience: global wheat inventories stand at 280 million tonnes versus 2007-08 crisis low, with prices rising just 4% versus Russia-Ukraine war’s 70% surge. Geopolitical shocks expose which systems built buffers and which optimised for fragility.
Climate liability compounds silently. Marshall Burke’s Nature study quantifies what was long suspected: one tonne CO2 emitted 1990 caused $180 damages by 2020 but $1,840 additional through 2100. Settling past damages won’t settle debts for past emissions. Oliver Milman documents US caused $10tn global damages since 1990 whilst inflicting quarter upon itself. Planetary boundaries crossed decades ago continue generating costs.
Tech governance reaches breaking point. Dan Milmo reports Los Angeles jury found Meta and YouTube liable for deliberately designing addictive products, first time platforms themselves faced liability. Governments respond: Indonesia and Australia mandate under-16 account deactivations, UK considers social media bans. Technological acceleration finally meets institutional accountability.
At 2050, we build ecosystems designed to withstand these pressures, not to predict which crisis hits next, but by investing where science shows resilience actually comes from. This edition shows why that matters. Share it with anyone who needs it.
Meyha
Insights
Marshall Burke, Mustafa Zahid, Noah S. Diffenbaugh & Solomon Hsiang 🇺🇸 report Nature study shows settling past climate damages won’t settle debts for past emissions, with one tonne CO2 emitted in 1990 causing $180 damages by 2020 but $1,840 additional damages through 2100. | Nature - CLIMATE LIABILITY
Oliver Milman 🇬🇧 reports US caused $10tn global economic damages since 1990 through planet-heating emissions, with quarter inflicted upon itself. | The Guardian - CLIMATE DAMAGES
Lili Pike 🇺🇸 reports China’s National People’s Congress approved Ecological and Environmental Code consolidating previous legislation on air quality, low-carbon development, and corporate polluter penalties whilst replacing 10 existing laws. | Bloomberg - ENVIRONMENT
Adi Imsirovic 🇬🇧 argues Strait of Hormuz closure removes 11 million barrels daily—10% of global supply—potentially worse for economy than COVID as emergency oil stocks cushion developed economies whilst developing countries face immediate vulnerability. | The Conversation - ENERGY CRISIS
Molly Taft 🇺🇸 reports US-Iran conflict threatens global fertilizer supplies ahead of spring planting season, with Qatar halting urea production removing nearly 20% world natural gas supply and urea prices rising 15% in one week. | WIRED - AGRICULTURE CRISIS
Javier Blas 🇪🇸 argues Strait of Hormuz blockage prompted food inflation warnings, yet agricultural markets remain stable short-term with plentiful stocks cushioning prices.| Bloomberg - FOOD SECURITY
Dan Milmo & Robert Booth 🇬🇧 report Los Angeles jury found Meta and YouTube liable for deliberately designing addictive products, awarding $6M damages whilst marking “big tobacco moment” for social media. | The Guardian - TECH LIABILITY
Charlie Perreau 🇫🇷 reports European Investment Bank Group launches ETCI 2.0 initiative targeting €15B to finance European tech champions, addressing chronic growth funding gap estimated at €70B annually versus US counterparts. | Les Echos - EU TECH FUNDING
PitchBook 🇺🇸 report an analysis that shows US evergreen funds surged past $520B as private markets push deeper into private wealth channels, yet liquidity limits, redemption gating, and credit concerns test the model. | PitchBook - EVERGREEN FUNDS
Annu Nieminen (Founder & CEO, The Upright Project) 🇫🇮 announces Statista selected Upright Project as data partner for global impact rankings based on quantified externalities and science rather than company reporting, launching World’s Most Impactful Companies 2026 with TIME magazine later this spring. | LinkedIn - IMPACT RANKINGS
Graph that retained my attention this week
It Takes Time to Build What Lasts According to Cambridge Associates, private equity and venture funds typically require 7 to 9 years before their performance can be meaningfully assessed. Quartile rankings shift, portfolios mature, and the full picture only emerges with time.
